Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild air mass over central Poland on June 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 17–18 °C amid variable cloud cover and light northwesterly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects model consensus on limited solar heating and modest warm advection, while the spread to 16 °C or 19 °C captures uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage. Historical June averages near 22 °C provide context, yet current guidance shows cooler-than-normal conditions tied to a persistent trough. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services expected in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 11?
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
16°C 18%
19°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
5%
16°C
18%
17°C
29%
18°C
27%
19°C
17%
20°C
6%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
16°C 18%
19°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
12°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$56 Vol.
5%
16°C
$11 Vol.
18%
17°C
$18 Vol.
29%
18°C
$37 Vol.
27%
19°C
$19 Vol.
17%
20°C
$112 Vol.
6%
21°C
$40 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$41 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild air mass over central Poland on June 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 17–18 °C amid variable cloud cover and light northwesterly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects model consensus on limited solar heating and modest warm advection, while the spread to 16 °C or 19 °C captures uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage. Historical June averages near 22 °C provide context, yet current guidance shows cooler-than-normal conditions tied to a persistent trough. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services expected in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$348End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild air mass over central Poland on June 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 17–18 °C amid variable cloud cover and light northwesterly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects model consensus on limited solar heating and modest warm advection, while the spread to 16 °C or 19 °C captures uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage. Historical June averages near 22 °C provide context, yet current guidance shows cooler-than-normal conditions tied to a persistent trough. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services expected in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$348End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a mild air mass over central Poland on June 11, with daytime highs most likely reaching 17–18 °C amid variable cloud cover and light northwesterly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects model consensus on limited solar heating and modest warm advection, while the spread to 16 °C or 19 °C captures uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage. Historical June averages near 22 °C provide context, yet current guidance shows cooler-than-normal conditions tied to a persistent trough. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services expected in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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