Skip to main content
icon for Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?
Politics·Airspace

Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?

icon for Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?
Politics·Airspace

Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?

NEW

$206,824 Vol.

Jun 9, 2026
Polymarket

$206,824 Vol.

Polymarket

June 8

$178,883 Vol.

100%

June 9

$13,655 Vol.

100%

June 10

$4,060 Vol.

100%

June 11

$4,622 Vol.

100%

June 12

$5,851 Vol.

100%

June 15

$1,883 Vol.

100%

June 30

$3,923 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.Recent diplomatic signals and a fragile ceasefire following the 2026 Iran conflict have enabled limited flight operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), with live tracking data showing scheduled departures to regional destinations alongside some delays and cancellations. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that airspace restrictions will ease further in the coming weeks, supported by correlated markets pricing diplomatic engagement. Key variables include Iranian civil aviation authority announcements, airline schedule updates, and any renewed escalation that could trigger renewed suspensions. Resolution depends strictly on verified takeoffs rather than airport reopening statements, with outcomes sensitive to developments through late June.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.
Volume
$206,824
End Date
Jul 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 10:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.Recent diplomatic signals and a fragile ceasefire following the 2026 Iran conflict have enabled limited flight operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), with live tracking data showing scheduled departures to regional destinations alongside some delays and cancellations. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that airspace restrictions will ease further in the coming weeks, supported by correlated markets pricing diplomatic engagement. Key variables include Iranian civil aviation authority announcements, airline schedule updates, and any renewed escalation that could trigger renewed suspensions. Resolution depends strictly on verified takeoffs rather than airport reopening statements, with outcomes sensitive to developments through late June.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.
Volume
$206,824
End Date
Jul 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 10:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

Related

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

2%
icon for Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

100%
icon for Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

98%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 8" at 100%, followed by "June 9" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" has generated $206.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" is "June 8" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 9" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.