Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty between the United States and Iran, including indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and periodic exchanges of strikes through early June 2026, remains the dominant influence on rial valuation. Traders monitor signs of progress toward sanctions relief tied to nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, which could ease hard-currency constraints and slow depreciation if a framework advances before month-end. Persistent sanctions, reduced oil export capacity, and domestic inflation continue to pressure parallel-market rates near or above 1.6–1.7 million rials per dollar. Any verified breakthrough on sanctions easing or renewed escalation before June 30 could shift the exchange trajectory, while stalled negotiations would likely sustain the recent weakening trend observed since spring.