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Mundo·Presidencia De Trump

¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?
Mundo·Presidencia De Trump

¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?

dic 31

dic 31

$7,423,307 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$7,423,307 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de abril

$2,431,511 Vol.

<1%

31 de diciembre

$440,639 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US military actions against Iran—including airstrikes, a naval blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, and over 900 initial strikes launched February 28—formal congressional declaration of war remains absent, with President Trump conducting operations via executive authority under the War Powers Resolution. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire starting April 8 has strained, as Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without sanction relief, prompting US skepticism toward Tehran's latest April 28 proposal. Congressional Democrats question the 60-day limit for unauthorized hostilities, but historical precedent favors continued executive action over a rare full declaration. Escalation risks persist ahead of potential new strikes or stalled Islamabad talks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,423,307
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US military actions against Iran—including airstrikes, a naval blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, and over 900 initial strikes launched February 28—formal congressional declaration of war remains absent, with President Trump conducting operations via executive authority under the War Powers Resolution. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire starting April 8 has strained, as Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without sanction relief, prompting US skepticism toward Tehran's latest April 28 proposal. Congressional Democrats question the 60-day limit for unauthorized hostilities, but historical precedent favors continued executive action over a rare full declaration. Escalation risks persist ahead of potential new strikes or stalled Islamabad talks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,423,307
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 8%, seguido de "30 de abril" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 8¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 8% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?" ha generado $7.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?" es "31 de diciembre" con solo 8%, con "30 de abril" muy cerca con 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos declarará oficialmente la guerra a Irán antes del...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.