The Sudanese Armed Forces have maintained firm control of Khartoum since expelling RSF forces from the capital and surrounding state by May 2025, with government operations resuming there amid a broader territorial stalemate. Front lines have stabilized into a de facto east-west division, with RSF focused on consolidating Darfur and western enclaves while relying primarily on drone strikes against SAF-held sites rather than large-scale ground offensives toward the capital. Recent months show intensified aerial exchanges and limited peripheral fighting in Kordofan but no RSF momentum sufficient for a rapid seizure of Khartoum. With only weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, traders assign overwhelming probability against capture, reflecting the SAF’s entrenched defensive posture and RSF’s logistical constraints. A decisive shift would require an unforeseen, rapid escalation in RSF capabilities or external backing within the narrow window.