**Neymar's inclusion in Brazil's official 26-man squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, combined with positive recovery updates from a grade-2 right calf injury sustained in mid-May while with Santos, underpins the 89.5% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome.** Coach Carlo Ancelotti has repeatedly confirmed the 34-year-old forward remains part of the plans without roster changes, citing his experience and leadership value alongside players like Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha, despite Neymar missing pre-tournament friendlies against Panama and Egypt. Medical reports from the Brazilian Football Confederation and recent MRI scans indicate steady progress within expected timelines, positioning him to potentially return for Brazil's second group-stage match against Haiti on June 20 or shortly thereafter. At this stage of the tournament, with Brazil favored to advance from Group C, the short-term nature of the calf strain and the absence of long-term setbacks support trader consensus that Neymar will see action in at least one match, even if he sits out the opener versus Morocco. Historical patterns of his recoveries and the squad's depth further reinforce the market's assessment of high likelihood.