¿MetaMask lanzará un token antes del ___ ?
¿MetaMask lanzará un token antes del ___ ?
$8,597,562 Vol.
30 de junio
$1,139,148 Vol.
1%
30 de septiembre
$972,327 Vol.
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$303,162 Vol.
29%
$8,597,562 Vol.
30 de junio
1%
30 de septiembre
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
29%
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 8, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No official MetaMask token launch by end of 2025 confirmed
As of mid-2026, no official announcement or evidence of a publicly tradable MetaMask token launch by December 31, 2025, has been made. Market prices for all 2025 launch outcomes have collapsed near zero, indicating consensus on a 'No' resolution for the 2025 deadline.
Market consensus shifts to expecting MetaMask token launch in late 2026 or beyond
By mid-2026, market prices for all resolution dates had dropped significantly, reflecting consensus that the $MASK token launch would not occur by the end of 2025 or mid-2026. Analysts and community sentiment point to a realistic launch window in Q3-Q4 2026 or later.
MetaMask Agent Wallet gains early access users and plans summer public launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped early access to 200 users for its AI Agent Wallet and announced a broader public launch planned for summer 2026, signaling product expansion but no token launch confirmation.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet in Early Access
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced its Agent Wallet for AI-driven trading. While showcasing product innovation, the release did not signal any progress toward a native MASK token generation event.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet for Autonomous AI Trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI agents to autonomously trade and manage crypto assets while users retain control. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product suite but did not involve launching the $MASK token, maintaining uncertainty about the token launch timeline.
MetaMask CEO confirms $MASK token launch expected in near future
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token launch is expected soon, likely aligned with a ConsenSys IPO in late 2026. This statement reinforced market expectations for a later launch rather than before June 30, 2026.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access for AI-driven onchain trading
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask opened early access to its Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet enabling AI agents to trade autonomously under user-defined rules. This product launch demonstrated MetaMask's innovation focus but did not involve a $MASK token launch, influencing market sentiment.
MetaMask Agent Wallet launches early access for advanced trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched early access for its Agent Wallet, enabling advanced trading features and signaling ongoing product development but no $MASK token launch yet, maintaining market uncertainty about timing.
MetaMask emphasizes security in AI Agent Wallet launch with transaction protection
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask highlighted security features including transaction simulation and up to $10,000 coverage for safe transactions in the AI Agent Wallet, reinforcing user trust but unrelated to MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask launches AI Agent Wallet in early access for 200 users
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven crypto trading with built-in security features, showcasing product innovation but not signaling a MASK token launch, coinciding with a slight price decline in token launch probabilities.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access for AI-driven trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI agents to trade autonomously with user-defined rules. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, causing minor market impact.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-powered autonomous DeFi trading
On June 8, 2026, MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet designed for AI agents to autonomously execute trades and DeFi interactions under user-defined controls. This launch was significant for MetaMask's product expansion but did not involve launching a new token. The wallet supports multiple EVM chains and includes security features like transaction simulation and threat scanning.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-assisted crypto trading and management, signaling ongoing ecosystem innovation but unrelated directly to token launch timing. This event reflects MetaMask's broader product development rather than token issuance.
MetaMask USD stablecoin (mUSD) maintains stable $1 price
MetaMask's own stablecoin, mUSD, launched in September 2025, continued to trade steadily at $1, demonstrating MetaMask's expanding token ecosystem. This stablecoin is distinct from the MASK token and does not indicate a MASK token launch.
MetaMask USD (mUSD) price reaches $1 per token
June 30 dips to 2%2%
The price of MetaMask USD (mUSD) was confirmed at $1 per token on June 4, 2026, solidifying its status as a stablecoin and a publicly tradable token.
Open Transaction Layer (OTL) launches with MetaMask as a founding member
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
MetaMask joined Fireblocks, Robinhood, and others to launch OTL, a protocol to standardize on-chain financial transactions, enhancing MetaMask's infrastructure role but not directly affecting token launch timing.
Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)
June 30 dips to 2%3%
MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.
MetaMask launches US payment card with onchain rewards via Mastercard partnership
MetaMask expanded its product ecosystem with a US payment card offering onchain rewards, enhancing user engagement but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.
npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.
Consensys delays $7B IPO to fall 2026
Consensys postponed its planned IPO to fall 2026, likely delaying the $MASK token launch which is expected to coincide with the IPO, reducing near-term token launch probability.
Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new Benefits tab, no token announced
June 30 dips to 1%4%
MetaMask announced the return of the Rewards program (new Benefits tab) without any token launch, reinforcing traders’ view that the token was still not imminent; the June‑30 probability fell to the 1‑% range by June 11.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new benefits and token allocations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program featuring trading challenges, airdrops, and token allocations based on wallet activity. While this increased user engagement and token distribution, it did not confirm a full public $MASK token launch, contributing to price fluctuations.
MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, reviving long-term speculation for a future MASK token allocation.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with Benefits Tab but No Native Token
June 30 dips to 8%1%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, but still without any native MASK token, keeping near-term launch probabilities extremely low.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over from Season 1
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
Announcement of Season 2 of MetaMask Rewards with points carrying over from Season 1 indicated ongoing preparation for token distribution but no official token launch yet, causing some price fluctuations.
MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with Partner Benefits and Airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab. While it offered partner token allocations, it did not announce the native MASK token, keeping long-term launch odds stable but low.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab and Partner Airdrops
June 30 dips to 5%3%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without launching its own native token, reinforcing expectations of a delayed token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 begins, points carry over for future MASK token allocation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched Season 2 of its Rewards program, continuing point accumulation that is expected to factor into the eventual MASK token distribution, signaling a delayed but ongoing launch process.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new challenges and benefits
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
MetaMask re‑launched its Rewards program with new challenges and a claim portal, but again gave no concrete token‑launch date. The reinstated rewards temporarily lifted optimism, raising the “December 31 2026” odds to 44 % on 2026‑05‑09 before the market settled back down to 28 % by 2026‑06‑11.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, keeping users engaged while the native token remained unreleased.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay steps down after a decade
Dan Finlay's departure from Consensys marked a leadership change at MetaMask, possibly impacting project timelines including the token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.
Consensys prepares 2026 IPO, signaling shift away from immediate token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
Consensys filed for a 2026 IPO, shifting investor focus to equity financing rather than a native token, which nudged the December‑31‑2026 probability down from 44 % in early May to 28 % by June 11.
SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask
Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.
Societe Generale expands USD stablecoin access to MetaMask users
Societe Generale-FORGE partnered with ConsenSys to make its USD CoinVertible token available on MetaMask, increasing MetaMask's ecosystem utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch anticipation.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new trading challenges and airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%6%
MetaMask Rewards returned with new features including trading challenges and token allocations, enhancing user engagement but not signaling a full token launch. This maintained interest in the MASK token but did not confirm tradability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends with $30 million in Linea token distributions
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
MetaMask concluded its first Rewards season distributing $LINEA tokens and other perks, signaling ongoing token-related activity but not a $MASK token launch. This event maintained interest but did not confirm a tradable $MASK token.
Linea Shifts to Sustainable LINEA Token Model and Launches Yield Boost
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Linea transitioned from its temporary points system to the sustainable LINEA token, integrating it with the MetaMask Card. This shift further confirmed that Consensys was prioritizing the LINEA ecosystem over an immediate MASK token launch, keeping June 30 odds near zero.
MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout
December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible wallet users
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, distributing tokens to eligible users and confirming the token's existence and partial tradability. This event was a major milestone but did not fully satisfy the market's expectations for a fully tradable token by earlier deadlines, leading to price declines.
MetaMask launches official $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallets
MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens through the official portal. This confirmed the token's existence and decentralized governance intent but occurred after the 2025 resolution date, impacting market prices negatively for earlier outcomes.
MetaMask Officially Launches $MASK Token Airdrop for Eligible Users
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%9%
MetaMask began distributing the $MASK token via an airdrop to eligible users active before March 2026, marking the first public availability of the native token. This event confirmed the token launch but occurred after the December 31, 2025 deadline, impacting market resolution.
MetaMask hints at early‑2026 Card rollout, no token news
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask posted a brief update that the upcoming MetaMask Card would launch in early 2026, but offered no token‑related news. The market interpreted the silence as further delay, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds down to 32 % on 2026‑03‑10.
Consensys prepares for 2026 IPO, influencing MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Consensys's plans for a 2026 IPO created strategic considerations for the timing of the MASK token launch, as launching before or after the IPO could have regulatory and market implications. This uncertainty kept market probabilities low for a 2025 launch.
Consensys CEO says MetaMask token may arrive sooner than expected
June 30 dips to 9%4%
Consensys CEO Joe Lubin, in an interview with The Block, reiterated that the token could still arrive “sooner than expected,” but gave no concrete timeline. The lack of a firm date caused further price decay for all three outcomes, especially the June‑30 market that dropped to 5 % by late May.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or claim portal opened by early 2026
June 30 drops to 1%13%
Despite ongoing speculation and points accumulation in the Rewards program, no official $MASK token generation event or public trading launch occurred by early 2026, causing market probabilities to decline sharply.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes
September 30 drops to 21%9%
MetaMask announced that the claim window for Season 1 rewards had officially closed. With no native token generated, expectations for a mid-year launch collapsed, shifting focus to late 2026.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 9%10%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without a MASK token launch, reinforcing market doubts about a 2025 or early 2026 launch and contributing to falling market probabilities.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window as Focus Shifts to Future Seasons
September 30 drops to 18%11%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming that the immediate distribution phase was over without any MASK token launch, further depressing early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.
MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.
SEC dismisses lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask services
June 30 drops to 14%8%
The U.S. SEC announced dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask’s staking and swap features, removing a regulatory cloud but also resetting expectations for a token launch, which slid the June‑30 probability to single‑digit levels.
Polymarket Odds for MetaMask Token Launch Drop Sharply
September 30 plunges to 34%29%
Following the end of Season 1 and lack of official token generation event, prediction market odds for a MetaMask token launch by September 30, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing market skepticism about an imminent launch.
Market sentiment shifts to delay in MetaMask token launch
June 30 drops to 13%9%
Analyses and reports highlighted regulatory uncertainties, market downturns, and lack of official token generation event signals, leading to a sharp decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO, Shifting Focus to Equity Over Tokens
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Reports emerged that MetaMask's parent company Consensys is planning a Wall Street IPO for 2026. This shifted investor focus toward traditional equity and suggested a longer timeline for any decentralized token launch.
Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.
MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%
On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.
MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.
MetaMask Card Launches in the US in Partnership with Mastercard
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US, shifting focus toward product utility rather than immediate token generation.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance for Tokenized Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask expanded its platform utility by supporting tokenized traditional assets like Apple and Microsoft shares, shifting focus toward product expansion rather than a token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized U.S. Stocks
June 30 rises to 14%1%
MetaMask launched an integration with Ondo Finance to allow non-U.S. users to trade over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs directly inside the mobile wallet.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
MetaMask launched support for trading tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance. While expanding DeFi utility, it confirmed that Consensys was still only considering a native token with no official launch date.
MetaMask integrates 200+ tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo
MetaMask expanded wallet functionality by integrating tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing user offerings but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask Points Program Season 1 ends with no MASK token generation event
December 31, 2026 plunges to 40%26%
The conclusion of the first MetaMask Rewards season ended without a token generation event, disappointing users and signaling that the MASK token launch would not occur in 2025. This contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 launch.
Market sentiment declines as no $MASK token launch occurs by early 2026
June 30 plunges to 15%17%
Despite earlier confirmations and infrastructure signals, no official $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, causing market prices for token launch by June and September 2026 to fall sharply. The delay reflects regulatory caution and strategic timing considerations by ConsenSys.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal by SEC clears regulatory uncertainty
In early 2026, the SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Consensys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risk but no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market uncertainty.
No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026
Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.
No MASK token launch or airdrop by late January 2026 despite prior signals
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
By late January 2026, no official MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, despite earlier confirmations and community anticipation. This delay reflected regulatory caution and strategic timing related to Consensys's IPO plans, leading to declining market probabilities.
Market Analysis Highlights Regulatory and IPO Pressures Delaying MASK Token
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Reports highlighted that Consensys's planned mid-2026 IPO and regulatory scrutiny during the pre-IPO quiet period were delaying the MASK token launch, pushing expectations to late 2026.
Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.
No MetaMask token launch or airdrop by late January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 9%23%
Despite earlier optimism, by late January 2026 no $MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, revealing regulatory and strategic delays, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for token launch probability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, claim window closes
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards ended, distributing $30 million in $LINEA tokens. The conclusion provided data for finalizing token economics but no $MASK token launch occurred, leading to market price declines as expectations adjusted.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Concludes with Linea Token Distribution but No Native MASK Token
June 30 plunges to 14%46%
The first season of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens instead of the highly anticipated native $MASK token, causing a sharp decline in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Closes, Distributing Linea Tokens Instead of MASK
June 30 drops to 13%12%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards officially concluded on January 23, 2026, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens. The lack of a native MASK token launch or immediate TGE announcement disappointed traders hoping for a near-term drop, causing the June 30 and September 30 probabilities to plunge.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends without token launch
September 30 drops to 59%9%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program ended on January 23, 2026, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens but no $MASK token launch occurred. This led to negative user sentiment and a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Ends with LINEA Payouts, Dampening MASK Token Hopes
Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program concluded by distributing LINEA tokens and other partner perks instead of a native MASK token. The lack of concrete signals for a MASK TGE led to a sharp drop in short-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Closes Rewards Season 1 Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
September 30 plunges to 41%19%
MetaMask officially concluded Season 1 of its Rewards program, distributing LINEA tokens and other perks instead of launching its own native MASK token. The lack of a native token generation event disappointed speculative users and depressed early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch
June 30 plunges to 13%65%
MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.
MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge
September 30 drops to 65%12%
The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.
MetaMask announces end of Rewards Season 1 with mixed user sentiment
September 30 drops to 59%10%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens rather than $MASK. User sentiment was negative due to lack of direct $MASK rewards, leading to declining market confidence in a near-term token launch.
MetaMask says token still under development, no launch date set
September 30 drops to 71%7%
MetaMask’s official X account reiterated that the token was still “in development” with no launch date, causing the market’s confidence in a 2025 launch to erode sharply; the September‑30 probability fell below 60 % by early January 2026.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support after 10-month wait
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its multichain wallet capabilities and enhancing user experience, but this did not include launching a native token.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 dips to 54%4%
MetaMask integrated native Bitcoin support, continuing its transition into a comprehensive multichain wallet.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support in app
MetaMask expanded its multichain capabilities by adding native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet utility and user engagement, which supported ongoing token launch speculation.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by launching native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade BTC directly and earn reward points, keeping the ecosystem highly active.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support expanding multichain capabilities
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
MetaMask officially added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This multichain expansion enhanced MetaMask's ecosystem but did not involve launching the $MASK token, contributing to market reassessment of token launch timing.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly. Swapping BTC natively earned users points in the Rewards program, further driving engagement.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support expanding wallet utility
MetaMask launched native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet functionality and user engagement, indirectly supporting the ecosystem readiness for the MASK token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support
June 30 plunges to 57%20%
MetaMask announced native Bitcoin support, expanding the wallet’s product roadmap. Analysts interpreted the move as a shift of engineering resources away from a token launch, which helped explain the sharp drop in the “June 30” odds from 77 % (early Nov 2025) to 57 % by 2025‑12‑31.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Beyond Ethereum
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to buy, send, and trade BTC directly. This major product expansion fueled speculation that the wallet was preparing its ecosystem for a native token launch.
MetaMask Introduces Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multi-Chain Capabilities
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly inside the wallet, boosting product utility and engagement metrics ahead of potential tokenization.
MetaMask officially launches native Bitcoin support, expanding multichain capabilities
MetaMask rolled out native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and swap BTC directly in-app, enhancing its ecosystem and rewards program. While this was a major product milestone, it did not include a token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty about the token's arrival in 2025.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points
September 30 jumps to 77%6%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Native Prediction Markets Powered by Polymarket
June 30 drops to 57%9%
MetaMask integrated Polymarket natively into its mobile app, introducing a 4% transaction fee but offering points rewards linked to a future token launch, which temporarily shifted focus to product utility.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Prediction Markets
June 30 drops to 54%6%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket, expanding its in-wallet features and rewards program.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Enable In-App Prediction Markets
September 30 plunges to 69%15%
MetaMask launched prediction markets directly within its mobile app through an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, allowing users to earn rewards points tied to its planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Trading with Rewards Points Incentive
June 30 drops to 57%7%
MetaMask launched an in-wallet integration with prediction market platform Polymarket, charging a 4% fee but offering users 2 rewards points per dollar traded. This integration expanded wallet utility and tied directly into the points program paving the way for the planned token launch.
MetaMask launches $9.99/month Wallet Protection service
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
MetaMask introduced a wallet protection service enhancing security but unrelated directly to the token launch. This launch coincided with a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting waning confidence in a token launch by year-end.
Phishing Domain Mimicking MetaMask Registered Amid Growing Token Speculation
September 30 dips to 85%2%
A deceptive domain, metamask.io-token.vip, was registered to target MetaMask users, highlighting the intense community anticipation and vulnerability to scams surrounding the rumored token launch.
Consensys founder discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
On November 17, 2025, Joseph Lubin, Consensys founder, publicly discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum ecosystem growth, reinforcing confidence in the token launch and its strategic importance.
Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discusses upcoming MetaMask token
September 30 rises to 90%1%
Joseph Lubin publicly discussed the future MetaMask token, reinforcing confidence in the token launch and its strategic importance within the Ethereum ecosystem, supporting sustained market optimism.
Consensys CEO discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum's future on The Block, reinforcing the token's imminent launch and its importance to the ecosystem, sustaining high market confidence.
MetaMask token launch valuation and market excitement rise
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated $MASK token, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news sustained high market optimism and price levels for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares for token launch amid Consensys IPO plans
September 30 dips to 87%1%
MetaMask announced a new rewards program and Consensys filed for an IPO, suggesting strategic alignment between public company growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, which increased market optimism.
MetaMask prepares to launch $MASK token with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 surges to 89%16%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, fueling further market enthusiasm and price increases for token launch outcomes.
MetaMask prepares for highly anticipated MASK token launch
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the MASK token, estimating a large-scale airdrop and significant valuation, which sustained market enthusiasm and elevated token launch odds.
MetaMask prepares to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 jumps to 87%14%
MetaMask is preparing to launch its MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, with early estimates of $2.4 billion worth of tokens distributed. This announcement heightened market confidence in a token launch by year-end.
MetaMask USD stablecoin launches on Ethereum and Linea
September 30 dips to 85%2%
MetaMask announced and launched its native stablecoin, MetaMask USD (mUSD), integrated into its ecosystem, signaling expansion of MetaMask's financial offerings but not a direct token launch, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Reports highlight MetaMask preparing to launch $MASK token with large airdrop
September 30 jumps to 89%11%
On November 15, 2025, multiple reports detailed MetaMask's preparations to launch the MASK token, with expectations of one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news significantly increased market optimism, pushing the September 30 outcome price to a peak of 90%.
Consensys CEO reiterates imminent MetaMask token launch
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MetaMask MASK token launch is imminent, reinforcing market expectations. This statement helped sustain high prediction market prices for a token launch by September 30 and June 30, 2025.
Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation
September 30 surges to 90%39%
Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.
MetaMask Rewards program activity spikes amid token launch speculation
September 30 surges to 78%27%
Following the launch of the Rewards program and clarifications, user activity increased significantly, reflected in market price jumps for the September 30 outcome. This surge indicated growing belief in an imminent token launch and airdrop, driving prices from 51% to 78% within days.
MetaMask Launches $30 Million LINEA Token Rewards Program
September 30 surges to 72%19%
MetaMask announced the distribution of over $30 million in LINEA tokens through its rewards program. This concrete reward mechanism reinforced the expectation of a forthcoming native token launch, causing the September 30 outcome odds to surge.
MetaMask Users Express Disappointment Over LINEA Rewards Instead of MASK
September 30 surges to 72%19%
As the Rewards program progressed, community sentiment experienced a shift as users realized Season 1 distributed LINEA tokens rather than the highly anticipated MASK token, causing a temporary adjustment in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask launches $30 million LINEA rewards program
September 30 dips to 61%2%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program distributing LINEA tokens, seen as a precursor to the MASK token launch and a way to test reward distribution mechanisms, boosting market confidence in the token launch timeline.
MetaMask launches $30 million Linea token rewards program distinct from token generation event
September 30 surges to 72%21%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens to incentivize user engagement, clarifying that this program is separate but related to the upcoming MASK token generation event. This helped maintain market enthusiasm by showing active steps toward the token launch.
MetaMask Clarifies Separation Between Rewards Program and Token Generation Event
June 30 plunges to 63%15%
MetaMask clarified that its newly launched Rewards program and the anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) are distinct initiatives. This clarification cooled down immediate expectations of a native token launch, causing a temporary drop in the June 30 outcome odds.
MetaMask clarifies distinction between rewards program and token generation event
September 30 surges to 72%21%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and upcoming Token Generation Event are distinct but related, reinforcing the token launch plans and boosting market confidence in the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards program and Token Generation Event are distinct
June 30 jumps to 67%6%
MetaMask clarified that its $30 million LINEA token Rewards program and the upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) are separate but related initiatives. This distinction reassured users about the token launch timeline and structure, supporting continued engagement and boosting market confidence.
MetaMask announces $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 89%17%
MetaMask unveiled a $30 million Linea token rewards program distinct from but related to its upcoming Token Generation Event, reinforcing expectations of an imminent token launch and boosting market prices.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask token launch soon
June 30 surges to 75%25%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed on a podcast that the MetaMask MASK token is coming and may launch sooner than expected, signaling strong intent and increasing market confidence in a 2025 launch.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, signaling preparatory steps toward a token launch and increasing market confidence.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 rises to 78%3%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, intensifying speculation about an imminent $MASK token airdrop and launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 78%28%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and Perps Launch Fuel Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 71%21%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and MetaMask Perps in October 2025, alongside the discovery of a password-protected claim domain, sparked intense speculation about an upcoming token launch.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No official MetaMask token launch by end of 2025 confirmed
As of mid-2026, no official announcement or evidence of a publicly tradable MetaMask token launch by December 31, 2025, has been made. Market prices for all 2025 launch outcomes have collapsed near zero, indicating consensus on a 'No' resolution for the 2025 deadline.
Market consensus shifts to expecting MetaMask token launch in late 2026 or beyond
By mid-2026, market prices for all resolution dates had dropped significantly, reflecting consensus that the $MASK token launch would not occur by the end of 2025 or mid-2026. Analysts and community sentiment point to a realistic launch window in Q3-Q4 2026 or later.
MetaMask Agent Wallet gains early access users and plans summer public launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped early access to 200 users for its AI Agent Wallet and announced a broader public launch planned for summer 2026, signaling product expansion but no token launch confirmation.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet in Early Access
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced its Agent Wallet for AI-driven trading. While showcasing product innovation, the release did not signal any progress toward a native MASK token generation event.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet for Autonomous AI Trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI agents to autonomously trade and manage crypto assets while users retain control. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product suite but did not involve launching the $MASK token, maintaining uncertainty about the token launch timeline.
MetaMask CEO confirms $MASK token launch expected in near future
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token launch is expected soon, likely aligned with a ConsenSys IPO in late 2026. This statement reinforced market expectations for a later launch rather than before June 30, 2026.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access for AI-driven onchain trading
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask opened early access to its Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet enabling AI agents to trade autonomously under user-defined rules. This product launch demonstrated MetaMask's innovation focus but did not involve a $MASK token launch, influencing market sentiment.
MetaMask Agent Wallet launches early access for advanced trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched early access for its Agent Wallet, enabling advanced trading features and signaling ongoing product development but no $MASK token launch yet, maintaining market uncertainty about timing.
MetaMask emphasizes security in AI Agent Wallet launch with transaction protection
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask highlighted security features including transaction simulation and up to $10,000 coverage for safe transactions in the AI Agent Wallet, reinforcing user trust but unrelated to MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask launches AI Agent Wallet in early access for 200 users
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven crypto trading with built-in security features, showcasing product innovation but not signaling a MASK token launch, coinciding with a slight price decline in token launch probabilities.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access for AI-driven trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI agents to trade autonomously with user-defined rules. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, causing minor market impact.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-powered autonomous DeFi trading
On June 8, 2026, MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet designed for AI agents to autonomously execute trades and DeFi interactions under user-defined controls. This launch was significant for MetaMask's product expansion but did not involve launching a new token. The wallet supports multiple EVM chains and includes security features like transaction simulation and threat scanning.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-assisted crypto trading and management, signaling ongoing ecosystem innovation but unrelated directly to token launch timing. This event reflects MetaMask's broader product development rather than token issuance.
MetaMask USD stablecoin (mUSD) maintains stable $1 price
MetaMask's own stablecoin, mUSD, launched in September 2025, continued to trade steadily at $1, demonstrating MetaMask's expanding token ecosystem. This stablecoin is distinct from the MASK token and does not indicate a MASK token launch.
MetaMask USD (mUSD) price reaches $1 per token
June 30 dips to 2%2%
The price of MetaMask USD (mUSD) was confirmed at $1 per token on June 4, 2026, solidifying its status as a stablecoin and a publicly tradable token.
Open Transaction Layer (OTL) launches with MetaMask as a founding member
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
MetaMask joined Fireblocks, Robinhood, and others to launch OTL, a protocol to standardize on-chain financial transactions, enhancing MetaMask's infrastructure role but not directly affecting token launch timing.
Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)
June 30 dips to 2%3%
MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.
MetaMask launches US payment card with onchain rewards via Mastercard partnership
MetaMask expanded its product ecosystem with a US payment card offering onchain rewards, enhancing user engagement but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.
npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.
Consensys delays $7B IPO to fall 2026
Consensys postponed its planned IPO to fall 2026, likely delaying the $MASK token launch which is expected to coincide with the IPO, reducing near-term token launch probability.
Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new Benefits tab, no token announced
June 30 dips to 1%4%
MetaMask announced the return of the Rewards program (new Benefits tab) without any token launch, reinforcing traders’ view that the token was still not imminent; the June‑30 probability fell to the 1‑% range by June 11.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new benefits and token allocations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program featuring trading challenges, airdrops, and token allocations based on wallet activity. While this increased user engagement and token distribution, it did not confirm a full public $MASK token launch, contributing to price fluctuations.
MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, reviving long-term speculation for a future MASK token allocation.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with Benefits Tab but No Native Token
June 30 dips to 8%1%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, but still without any native MASK token, keeping near-term launch probabilities extremely low.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over from Season 1
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
Announcement of Season 2 of MetaMask Rewards with points carrying over from Season 1 indicated ongoing preparation for token distribution but no official token launch yet, causing some price fluctuations.
MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with Partner Benefits and Airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab. While it offered partner token allocations, it did not announce the native MASK token, keeping long-term launch odds stable but low.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab and Partner Airdrops
June 30 dips to 5%3%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without launching its own native token, reinforcing expectations of a delayed token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 begins, points carry over for future MASK token allocation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched Season 2 of its Rewards program, continuing point accumulation that is expected to factor into the eventual MASK token distribution, signaling a delayed but ongoing launch process.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new challenges and benefits
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
MetaMask re‑launched its Rewards program with new challenges and a claim portal, but again gave no concrete token‑launch date. The reinstated rewards temporarily lifted optimism, raising the “December 31 2026” odds to 44 % on 2026‑05‑09 before the market settled back down to 28 % by 2026‑06‑11.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, keeping users engaged while the native token remained unreleased.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay steps down after a decade
Dan Finlay's departure from Consensys marked a leadership change at MetaMask, possibly impacting project timelines including the token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.
Consensys prepares 2026 IPO, signaling shift away from immediate token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
Consensys filed for a 2026 IPO, shifting investor focus to equity financing rather than a native token, which nudged the December‑31‑2026 probability down from 44 % in early May to 28 % by June 11.
SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask
Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.
Societe Generale expands USD stablecoin access to MetaMask users
Societe Generale-FORGE partnered with ConsenSys to make its USD CoinVertible token available on MetaMask, increasing MetaMask's ecosystem utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch anticipation.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new trading challenges and airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%6%
MetaMask Rewards returned with new features including trading challenges and token allocations, enhancing user engagement but not signaling a full token launch. This maintained interest in the MASK token but did not confirm tradability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends with $30 million in Linea token distributions
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
MetaMask concluded its first Rewards season distributing $LINEA tokens and other perks, signaling ongoing token-related activity but not a $MASK token launch. This event maintained interest but did not confirm a tradable $MASK token.
Linea Shifts to Sustainable LINEA Token Model and Launches Yield Boost
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Linea transitioned from its temporary points system to the sustainable LINEA token, integrating it with the MetaMask Card. This shift further confirmed that Consensys was prioritizing the LINEA ecosystem over an immediate MASK token launch, keeping June 30 odds near zero.
MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout
December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible wallet users
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, distributing tokens to eligible users and confirming the token's existence and partial tradability. This event was a major milestone but did not fully satisfy the market's expectations for a fully tradable token by earlier deadlines, leading to price declines.
MetaMask launches official $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallets
MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens through the official portal. This confirmed the token's existence and decentralized governance intent but occurred after the 2025 resolution date, impacting market prices negatively for earlier outcomes.
MetaMask Officially Launches $MASK Token Airdrop for Eligible Users
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%9%
MetaMask began distributing the $MASK token via an airdrop to eligible users active before March 2026, marking the first public availability of the native token. This event confirmed the token launch but occurred after the December 31, 2025 deadline, impacting market resolution.
MetaMask hints at early‑2026 Card rollout, no token news
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask posted a brief update that the upcoming MetaMask Card would launch in early 2026, but offered no token‑related news. The market interpreted the silence as further delay, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds down to 32 % on 2026‑03‑10.
Consensys prepares for 2026 IPO, influencing MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Consensys's plans for a 2026 IPO created strategic considerations for the timing of the MASK token launch, as launching before or after the IPO could have regulatory and market implications. This uncertainty kept market probabilities low for a 2025 launch.
Consensys CEO says MetaMask token may arrive sooner than expected
June 30 dips to 9%4%
Consensys CEO Joe Lubin, in an interview with The Block, reiterated that the token could still arrive “sooner than expected,” but gave no concrete timeline. The lack of a firm date caused further price decay for all three outcomes, especially the June‑30 market that dropped to 5 % by late May.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or claim portal opened by early 2026
June 30 drops to 1%13%
Despite ongoing speculation and points accumulation in the Rewards program, no official $MASK token generation event or public trading launch occurred by early 2026, causing market probabilities to decline sharply.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes
September 30 drops to 21%9%
MetaMask announced that the claim window for Season 1 rewards had officially closed. With no native token generated, expectations for a mid-year launch collapsed, shifting focus to late 2026.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 9%10%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without a MASK token launch, reinforcing market doubts about a 2025 or early 2026 launch and contributing to falling market probabilities.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window as Focus Shifts to Future Seasons
September 30 drops to 18%11%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming that the immediate distribution phase was over without any MASK token launch, further depressing early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.
MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.
SEC dismisses lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask services
June 30 drops to 14%8%
The U.S. SEC announced dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask’s staking and swap features, removing a regulatory cloud but also resetting expectations for a token launch, which slid the June‑30 probability to single‑digit levels.
Polymarket Odds for MetaMask Token Launch Drop Sharply
September 30 plunges to 34%29%
Following the end of Season 1 and lack of official token generation event, prediction market odds for a MetaMask token launch by September 30, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing market skepticism about an imminent launch.
Market sentiment shifts to delay in MetaMask token launch
June 30 drops to 13%9%
Analyses and reports highlighted regulatory uncertainties, market downturns, and lack of official token generation event signals, leading to a sharp decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO, Shifting Focus to Equity Over Tokens
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Reports emerged that MetaMask's parent company Consensys is planning a Wall Street IPO for 2026. This shifted investor focus toward traditional equity and suggested a longer timeline for any decentralized token launch.
Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.
MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%
On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.
MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.
MetaMask Card Launches in the US in Partnership with Mastercard
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US, shifting focus toward product utility rather than immediate token generation.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance for Tokenized Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask expanded its platform utility by supporting tokenized traditional assets like Apple and Microsoft shares, shifting focus toward product expansion rather than a token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized U.S. Stocks
June 30 rises to 14%1%
MetaMask launched an integration with Ondo Finance to allow non-U.S. users to trade over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs directly inside the mobile wallet.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
MetaMask launched support for trading tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance. While expanding DeFi utility, it confirmed that Consensys was still only considering a native token with no official launch date.
MetaMask integrates 200+ tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo
MetaMask expanded wallet functionality by integrating tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing user offerings but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask Points Program Season 1 ends with no MASK token generation event
December 31, 2026 plunges to 40%26%
The conclusion of the first MetaMask Rewards season ended without a token generation event, disappointing users and signaling that the MASK token launch would not occur in 2025. This contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 launch.
Market sentiment declines as no $MASK token launch occurs by early 2026
June 30 plunges to 15%17%
Despite earlier confirmations and infrastructure signals, no official $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, causing market prices for token launch by June and September 2026 to fall sharply. The delay reflects regulatory caution and strategic timing considerations by ConsenSys.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal by SEC clears regulatory uncertainty
In early 2026, the SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Consensys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risk but no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market uncertainty.
No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026
Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.
No MASK token launch or airdrop by late January 2026 despite prior signals
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
By late January 2026, no official MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, despite earlier confirmations and community anticipation. This delay reflected regulatory caution and strategic timing related to Consensys's IPO plans, leading to declining market probabilities.
Market Analysis Highlights Regulatory and IPO Pressures Delaying MASK Token
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Reports highlighted that Consensys's planned mid-2026 IPO and regulatory scrutiny during the pre-IPO quiet period were delaying the MASK token launch, pushing expectations to late 2026.
Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.
No MetaMask token launch or airdrop by late January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 9%23%
Despite earlier optimism, by late January 2026 no $MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, revealing regulatory and strategic delays, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for token launch probability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, claim window closes
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards ended, distributing $30 million in $LINEA tokens. The conclusion provided data for finalizing token economics but no $MASK token launch occurred, leading to market price declines as expectations adjusted.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Concludes with Linea Token Distribution but No Native MASK Token
June 30 plunges to 14%46%
The first season of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens instead of the highly anticipated native $MASK token, causing a sharp decline in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Closes, Distributing Linea Tokens Instead of MASK
June 30 drops to 13%12%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards officially concluded on January 23, 2026, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens. The lack of a native MASK token launch or immediate TGE announcement disappointed traders hoping for a near-term drop, causing the June 30 and September 30 probabilities to plunge.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends without token launch
September 30 drops to 59%9%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program ended on January 23, 2026, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens but no $MASK token launch occurred. This led to negative user sentiment and a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Ends with LINEA Payouts, Dampening MASK Token Hopes
Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program concluded by distributing LINEA tokens and other partner perks instead of a native MASK token. The lack of concrete signals for a MASK TGE led to a sharp drop in short-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Closes Rewards Season 1 Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
September 30 plunges to 41%19%
MetaMask officially concluded Season 1 of its Rewards program, distributing LINEA tokens and other perks instead of launching its own native MASK token. The lack of a native token generation event disappointed speculative users and depressed early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch
June 30 plunges to 13%65%
MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.
MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge
September 30 drops to 65%12%
The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.
MetaMask announces end of Rewards Season 1 with mixed user sentiment
September 30 drops to 59%10%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens rather than $MASK. User sentiment was negative due to lack of direct $MASK rewards, leading to declining market confidence in a near-term token launch.
MetaMask says token still under development, no launch date set
September 30 drops to 71%7%
MetaMask’s official X account reiterated that the token was still “in development” with no launch date, causing the market’s confidence in a 2025 launch to erode sharply; the September‑30 probability fell below 60 % by early January 2026.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support after 10-month wait
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its multichain wallet capabilities and enhancing user experience, but this did not include launching a native token.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 dips to 54%4%
MetaMask integrated native Bitcoin support, continuing its transition into a comprehensive multichain wallet.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support in app
MetaMask expanded its multichain capabilities by adding native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet utility and user engagement, which supported ongoing token launch speculation.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by launching native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade BTC directly and earn reward points, keeping the ecosystem highly active.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support expanding multichain capabilities
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
MetaMask officially added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This multichain expansion enhanced MetaMask's ecosystem but did not involve launching the $MASK token, contributing to market reassessment of token launch timing.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly. Swapping BTC natively earned users points in the Rewards program, further driving engagement.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support expanding wallet utility
MetaMask launched native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet functionality and user engagement, indirectly supporting the ecosystem readiness for the MASK token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support
June 30 plunges to 57%20%
MetaMask announced native Bitcoin support, expanding the wallet’s product roadmap. Analysts interpreted the move as a shift of engineering resources away from a token launch, which helped explain the sharp drop in the “June 30” odds from 77 % (early Nov 2025) to 57 % by 2025‑12‑31.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Beyond Ethereum
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to buy, send, and trade BTC directly. This major product expansion fueled speculation that the wallet was preparing its ecosystem for a native token launch.
MetaMask Introduces Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multi-Chain Capabilities
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly inside the wallet, boosting product utility and engagement metrics ahead of potential tokenization.
MetaMask officially launches native Bitcoin support, expanding multichain capabilities
MetaMask rolled out native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and swap BTC directly in-app, enhancing its ecosystem and rewards program. While this was a major product milestone, it did not include a token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty about the token's arrival in 2025.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points
September 30 jumps to 77%6%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Native Prediction Markets Powered by Polymarket
June 30 drops to 57%9%
MetaMask integrated Polymarket natively into its mobile app, introducing a 4% transaction fee but offering points rewards linked to a future token launch, which temporarily shifted focus to product utility.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Prediction Markets
June 30 drops to 54%6%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket, expanding its in-wallet features and rewards program.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Enable In-App Prediction Markets
September 30 plunges to 69%15%
MetaMask launched prediction markets directly within its mobile app through an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, allowing users to earn rewards points tied to its planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Trading with Rewards Points Incentive
June 30 drops to 57%7%
MetaMask launched an in-wallet integration with prediction market platform Polymarket, charging a 4% fee but offering users 2 rewards points per dollar traded. This integration expanded wallet utility and tied directly into the points program paving the way for the planned token launch.
MetaMask launches $9.99/month Wallet Protection service
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
MetaMask introduced a wallet protection service enhancing security but unrelated directly to the token launch. This launch coincided with a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting waning confidence in a token launch by year-end.
Phishing Domain Mimicking MetaMask Registered Amid Growing Token Speculation
September 30 dips to 85%2%
A deceptive domain, metamask.io-token.vip, was registered to target MetaMask users, highlighting the intense community anticipation and vulnerability to scams surrounding the rumored token launch.
Consensys founder discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
On November 17, 2025, Joseph Lubin, Consensys founder, publicly discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum ecosystem growth, reinforcing confidence in the token launch and its strategic importance.
Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discusses upcoming MetaMask token
September 30 rises to 90%1%
Joseph Lubin publicly discussed the future MetaMask token, reinforcing confidence in the token launch and its strategic importance within the Ethereum ecosystem, supporting sustained market optimism.
Consensys CEO discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum's future on The Block, reinforcing the token's imminent launch and its importance to the ecosystem, sustaining high market confidence.
MetaMask token launch valuation and market excitement rise
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated $MASK token, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news sustained high market optimism and price levels for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares for token launch amid Consensys IPO plans
September 30 dips to 87%1%
MetaMask announced a new rewards program and Consensys filed for an IPO, suggesting strategic alignment between public company growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, which increased market optimism.
MetaMask prepares to launch $MASK token with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 surges to 89%16%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, fueling further market enthusiasm and price increases for token launch outcomes.
MetaMask prepares for highly anticipated MASK token launch
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the MASK token, estimating a large-scale airdrop and significant valuation, which sustained market enthusiasm and elevated token launch odds.
MetaMask prepares to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 jumps to 87%14%
MetaMask is preparing to launch its MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, with early estimates of $2.4 billion worth of tokens distributed. This announcement heightened market confidence in a token launch by year-end.
MetaMask USD stablecoin launches on Ethereum and Linea
September 30 dips to 85%2%
MetaMask announced and launched its native stablecoin, MetaMask USD (mUSD), integrated into its ecosystem, signaling expansion of MetaMask's financial offerings but not a direct token launch, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Reports highlight MetaMask preparing to launch $MASK token with large airdrop
September 30 jumps to 89%11%
On November 15, 2025, multiple reports detailed MetaMask's preparations to launch the MASK token, with expectations of one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news significantly increased market optimism, pushing the September 30 outcome price to a peak of 90%.
Consensys CEO reiterates imminent MetaMask token launch
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MetaMask MASK token launch is imminent, reinforcing market expectations. This statement helped sustain high prediction market prices for a token launch by September 30 and June 30, 2025.
Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation
September 30 surges to 90%39%
Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.
MetaMask Rewards program activity spikes amid token launch speculation
September 30 surges to 78%27%
Following the launch of the Rewards program and clarifications, user activity increased significantly, reflected in market price jumps for the September 30 outcome. This surge indicated growing belief in an imminent token launch and airdrop, driving prices from 51% to 78% within days.
MetaMask Launches $30 Million LINEA Token Rewards Program
September 30 surges to 72%19%
MetaMask announced the distribution of over $30 million in LINEA tokens through its rewards program. This concrete reward mechanism reinforced the expectation of a forthcoming native token launch, causing the September 30 outcome odds to surge.
MetaMask Users Express Disappointment Over LINEA Rewards Instead of MASK
September 30 surges to 72%19%
As the Rewards program progressed, community sentiment experienced a shift as users realized Season 1 distributed LINEA tokens rather than the highly anticipated MASK token, causing a temporary adjustment in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask launches $30 million LINEA rewards program
September 30 dips to 61%2%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program distributing LINEA tokens, seen as a precursor to the MASK token launch and a way to test reward distribution mechanisms, boosting market confidence in the token launch timeline.
MetaMask launches $30 million Linea token rewards program distinct from token generation event
September 30 surges to 72%21%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens to incentivize user engagement, clarifying that this program is separate but related to the upcoming MASK token generation event. This helped maintain market enthusiasm by showing active steps toward the token launch.
MetaMask Clarifies Separation Between Rewards Program and Token Generation Event
June 30 plunges to 63%15%
MetaMask clarified that its newly launched Rewards program and the anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) are distinct initiatives. This clarification cooled down immediate expectations of a native token launch, causing a temporary drop in the June 30 outcome odds.
MetaMask clarifies distinction between rewards program and token generation event
September 30 surges to 72%21%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and upcoming Token Generation Event are distinct but related, reinforcing the token launch plans and boosting market confidence in the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards program and Token Generation Event are distinct
June 30 jumps to 67%6%
MetaMask clarified that its $30 million LINEA token Rewards program and the upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) are separate but related initiatives. This distinction reassured users about the token launch timeline and structure, supporting continued engagement and boosting market confidence.
MetaMask announces $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 89%17%
MetaMask unveiled a $30 million Linea token rewards program distinct from but related to its upcoming Token Generation Event, reinforcing expectations of an imminent token launch and boosting market prices.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask token launch soon
June 30 surges to 75%25%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed on a podcast that the MetaMask MASK token is coming and may launch sooner than expected, signaling strong intent and increasing market confidence in a 2025 launch.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, signaling preparatory steps toward a token launch and increasing market confidence.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 rises to 78%3%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, intensifying speculation about an imminent $MASK token airdrop and launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 78%28%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and Perps Launch Fuel Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 71%21%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and MetaMask Perps in October 2025, alongside the discovery of a password-protected claim domain, sparked intense speculation about an upcoming token launch.
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