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Política·Partido Democrático

¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?

icon for ¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?
Política·Partido Democrático

¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?

Sí

68% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

68% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus on a 67.5% implied probability for Democrats to win all core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—stems from recent nonpartisan forecaster shifts toward Democrats, including the Cook Political Report's April 13 updates moving Georgia to Lean Democratic and North Carolina remaining competitive as an open seat after Thom Tillis's retirement. Incumbent Jon Ossoff holds polling leads in Georgia, while Michigan's open contest post-Gary Peters leans Democratic amid strong fundraising by candidates like Elissa Slotkin. In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills's April 30 primary exit unified Democrats behind Jared Platner, challenging vulnerable incumbent Susan Collins. These developments, against a GOP Senate majority, signal Democratic resilience ahead of May primaries in North Carolina and elsewhere.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volumen
$3,607
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus on a 67.5% implied probability for Democrats to win all core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—stems from recent nonpartisan forecaster shifts toward Democrats, including the Cook Political Report's April 13 updates moving Georgia to Lean Democratic and North Carolina remaining competitive as an open seat after Thom Tillis's retirement. Incumbent Jon Ossoff holds polling leads in Georgia, while Michigan's open contest post-Gary Peters leans Democratic amid strong fundraising by candidates like Elissa Slotkin. In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills's April 30 primary exit unified Democrats behind Jared Platner, challenging vulnerable incumbent Susan Collins. These developments, against a GOP Senate majority, signal Democratic resilience ahead of May primaries in North Carolina and elsewhere.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volumen
$3,607
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Ganarán los demócratas las cuatro contiendas clave del Senado?" con 68%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 68¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 68% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 13, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?" es "¿Ganarán los demócratas las cuatro contiendas clave del Senado?" con 68%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 68% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganarán los demócratas las "cuatro principales" contiendas por el Senado?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.