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Geopolítica·Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación

¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?

icon for ¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?
Geopolítica·Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación

¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?

$82,134 Vol.

28 feb 2026
Polymarket

$82,134 Vol.

Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

$5,603 Vol.

49%

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

$5,780 Vol.

62%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$825 Vol.

62%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán

$4,815 Vol.

23%

Juan Carlos Valencia González

$58,516 Vol.

47%

Juan Reyes Mejía González

$0 Vol.

51%

Juan Pablo Ledezma

$647 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Under President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, Mexico has intensified its kingpin strategy with recent high-profile actions against cartel leadership, including the April 28 military raid arresting Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," a top lieutenant of slain leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), killed in a February Jalisco operation. Yesterday's U.S. DOJ indictment of Sinaloa state's governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials for conspiring with Sinaloa Cartel leaders underscores bilateral pressure amid narcoterrorism charges against figures like René Arzate-García ("La Rana"), with multimillion-dollar rewards. Top targets such as Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar remain at large, as escalating deployments and potential extraditions could drive further arrests before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,134
Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Under President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, Mexico has intensified its kingpin strategy with recent high-profile actions against cartel leadership, including the April 28 military raid arresting Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," a top lieutenant of slain leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"), killed in a February Jalisco operation. Yesterday's U.S. DOJ indictment of Sinaloa state's governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials for conspiring with Sinaloa Cartel leaders underscores bilateral pressure amid narcoterrorism charges against figures like René Arzate-García ("La Rana"), with multimillion-dollar rewards. Top targets such as Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar remain at large, as escalating deployments and potential extraditions could drive further arrests before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,134
Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Audias Flores-Silva" con 100%, seguido de "Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar" con 62%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?" ha generado $82.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 24, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?" es "Audias Flores-Silva" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar" con 62%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.