SpaceX's planned 2026 orbital propellant transfer demonstration drives current trader sentiment, as it requires two Version 3 Starships—one tanker variant with docking probes—to launch sequentially, rendezvous, and dock using newly added drogues and propellant connections. Recent V3 hardware on Flight 12 (May 2026) incorporated these systems alongside DragonEye sensors for navigation, building on prior ground qualification of the androgynous docking mechanism. Artemis lunar refueling needs and internal timelines targeting mid-2026 execution create the key catalyst, though launch cadence, FAA approvals, and in-orbit thermal/propellant stability tests remain swing factors for whether docking occurs before year-end deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
31 dic 2027
December 31, 2026?
23%
December 31, 2027?
53%
$6,824 Vol.
December 31, 2026?
$6,808 Vol.
23%
December 31, 2027?
$16 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's planned 2026 orbital propellant transfer demonstration drives current trader sentiment, as it requires two Version 3 Starships—one tanker variant with docking probes—to launch sequentially, rendezvous, and dock using newly added drogues and propellant connections. Recent V3 hardware on Flight 12 (May 2026) incorporated these systems alongside DragonEye sensors for navigation, building on prior ground qualification of the androgynous docking mechanism. Artemis lunar refueling needs and internal timelines targeting mid-2026 execution create the key catalyst, though launch cadence, FAA approvals, and in-orbit thermal/propellant stability tests remain swing factors for whether docking occurs before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$6,824Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's planned 2026 orbital propellant transfer demonstration drives current trader sentiment, as it requires two Version 3 Starships—one tanker variant with docking probes—to launch sequentially, rendezvous, and dock using newly added drogues and propellant connections. Recent V3 hardware on Flight 12 (May 2026) incorporated these systems alongside DragonEye sensors for navigation, building on prior ground qualification of the androgynous docking mechanism. Artemis lunar refueling needs and internal timelines targeting mid-2026 execution create the key catalyst, though launch cadence, FAA approvals, and in-orbit thermal/propellant stability tests remain swing factors for whether docking occurs before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,824Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's planned 2026 orbital propellant transfer demonstration drives current trader sentiment, as it requires two Version 3 Starships—one tanker variant with docking probes—to launch sequentially, rendezvous, and dock using newly added drogues and propellant connections. Recent V3 hardware on Flight 12 (May 2026) incorporated these systems alongside DragonEye sensors for navigation, building on prior ground qualification of the androgynous docking mechanism. Artemis lunar refueling needs and internal timelines targeting mid-2026 execution create the key catalyst, though launch cadence, FAA approvals, and in-orbit thermal/propellant stability tests remain swing factors for whether docking occurs before year-end deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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