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Mundo·RBA

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?

icon for ¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?
Mundo·RBA

¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?

may 5

jun 16

may 5

jun 16

Sin cambios 56%

Aumento 38%

Disminuir 2.0%

Polymarket

$19,379 Vol.

Sin cambios 56%

Aumento 38%

Disminuir 2.0%

Polymarket

$19,379 Vol.

Disminuir

$6,143 Vol.

2%

Sin cambios

$6,556 Vol.

51%

Aumento

$6,680 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 51.5% implied probability for no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 16 meeting, with a further 25 basis point increase at 37% amid sticky inflation pressures, while a cut languishes at 2%. Driving this positioning, the March quarter Consumer Price Index revealed headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-on-year—its highest since September 2023—fueled by Middle East energy volatility, though trimmed mean underlying inflation held steady at 3.3%, just above the 2–3% target midpoint. March employment added 17,900 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.1%, signaling labor market resilience without overheating. The imminent May 5 decision, with ASX futures implying ~76% odds of a hike to 4.35% from 4.10%, looms as the key near-term catalyst shaping June expectations.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$19,379
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 51.5% implied probability for no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 16 meeting, with a further 25 basis point increase at 37% amid sticky inflation pressures, while a cut languishes at 2%. Driving this positioning, the March quarter Consumer Price Index revealed headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-on-year—its highest since September 2023—fueled by Middle East energy volatility, though trimmed mean underlying inflation held steady at 3.3%, just above the 2–3% target midpoint. March employment added 17,900 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.1%, signaling labor market resilience without overheating. The imminent May 5 decision, with ASX futures implying ~76% odds of a hike to 4.35% from 4.10%, looms as the key near-term catalyst shaping June expectations.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$19,379
Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Sin cambios" con 51%, seguido de "Aumento" con 38%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 51¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" ha generado $19.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" es "Sin cambios" con 51%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Aumento" con 38%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.