Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting a prolonged low-volatility regime with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hovering near multi-year lows around 17 as of late April 2026, down sharply from earlier peaks. The S&P 500 has sustained record highs above 7,000, propelled by AI-driven megacap gains and three consecutive years of double-digit returns through 2025, keeping daily declines well below the 7% Level 1 threshold—no triggers have occurred since the 2020 COVID crash. Subdued inflation, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy stability underpin this skin-in-the-game positioning, though geopolitical tensions or election-year shocks could elevate tail risks ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting a prolonged low-volatility regime with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hovering near multi-year lows around 17 as of late April 2026, down sharply from earlier peaks. The S&P 500 has sustained record highs above 7,000, propelled by AI-driven megacap gains and three consecutive years of double-digit returns through 2025, keeping daily declines well below the 7% Level 1 threshold—no triggers have occurred since the 2020 COVID crash. Subdued inflation, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy stability underpin this skin-in-the-game positioning, though geopolitical tensions or election-year shocks could elevate tail risks ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Volumen
$50,693Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting a prolonged low-volatility regime with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hovering near multi-year lows around 17 as of late April 2026, down sharply from earlier peaks. The S&P 500 has sustained record highs above 7,000, propelled by AI-driven megacap gains and three consecutive years of double-digit returns through 2025, keeping daily declines well below the 7% Level 1 threshold—no triggers have occurred since the 2020 COVID crash. Subdued inflation, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy stability underpin this skin-in-the-game positioning, though geopolitical tensions or election-year shocks could elevate tail risks ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$50,693Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting a prolonged low-volatility regime with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hovering near multi-year lows around 17 as of late April 2026, down sharply from earlier peaks. The S&P 500 has sustained record highs above 7,000, propelled by AI-driven megacap gains and three consecutive years of double-digit returns through 2025, keeping daily declines well below the 7% Level 1 threshold—no triggers have occurred since the 2020 COVID crash. Subdued inflation, resilient labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy stability underpin this skin-in-the-game positioning, though geopolitical tensions or election-year shocks could elevate tail risks ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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