Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that Moderna (MRNA) will miss Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting sharply downward-revised analyst estimates—from -$2.03 EPS a month ago to as low as -$4.45 currently—and persistent revenue weakness from a 90% decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since 2022 peaks. Despite a Q4 2025 earnings beat (EPS -$2.11 versus -$2.79 expected), ongoing $2 billion-plus annual cash burn, lack of near-term profitability, and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) signal underscore skepticism, with revenue pegged at $224 million. High conviction stems from negative Earnings ESP and no major pipeline catalysts offsetting core business erosion, ahead of today's pre-market release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$11,893 Vol.
$11,893 Vol.
1 may 2026
$11,893 Vol.
$11,893 Vol.
1 may 2026
As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on May 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that Moderna (MRNA) will miss Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting sharply downward-revised analyst estimates—from -$2.03 EPS a month ago to as low as -$4.45 currently—and persistent revenue weakness from a 90% decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since 2022 peaks. Despite a Q4 2025 earnings beat (EPS -$2.11 versus -$2.79 expected), ongoing $2 billion-plus annual cash burn, lack of near-term profitability, and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) signal underscore skepticism, with revenue pegged at $224 million. High conviction stems from negative Earnings ESP and no major pipeline catalysts offsetting core business erosion, ahead of today's pre-market release.
As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on May 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Mercado abierto: Apr 23, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
Volumen
$11,893Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 4:47 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on May 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that Moderna (MRNA) will miss Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting sharply downward-revised analyst estimates—from -$2.03 EPS a month ago to as low as -$4.45 currently—and persistent revenue weakness from a 90% decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since 2022 peaks. Despite a Q4 2025 earnings beat (EPS -$2.11 versus -$2.79 expected), ongoing $2 billion-plus annual cash burn, lack of near-term profitability, and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) signal underscore skepticism, with revenue pegged at $224 million. High conviction stems from negative Earnings ESP and no major pipeline catalysts offsetting core business erosion, ahead of today's pre-market release.
As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on May 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volumen
$11,893Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 4:47 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that Moderna (MRNA) will miss Q1 2026 quarterly earnings consensus, reflecting sharply downward-revised analyst estimates—from -$2.03 EPS a month ago to as low as -$4.45 currently—and persistent revenue weakness from a 90% decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since 2022 peaks. Despite a Q4 2025 earnings beat (EPS -$2.11 versus -$2.79 expected), ongoing $2 billion-plus annual cash burn, lack of near-term profitability, and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) signal underscore skepticism, with revenue pegged at $224 million. High conviction stems from negative Earnings ESP and no major pipeline catalysts offsetting core business erosion, ahead of today's pre-market release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes