Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes triggered a swift leadership transition, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader in early March amid wartime consolidation around hardliners. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since mid-March, amid unverified reports of injuries like a fractured foot, reliance on AI videos, and speculation—including from US officials—about his health or survival, heightening uncertainty over regime stability. On April 30, a statement attributed to him reaffirmed defense of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, rejecting US peace overtures on the Strait of Hormuz, as ceasefire talks stall and internal power dynamics evolve.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$12,397,186 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de abril
<1%
31 de mayo
14%
30 de junio
20%
31 de diciembre
41%
$12,397,186 Vol.
30 de abril
$5,175,149 Vol.
<1%
31 de mayo
$1,213,035 Vol.
14%
30 de junio
$731,918 Vol.
20%
31 de diciembre
$2,046,446 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes triggered a swift leadership transition, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader in early March amid wartime consolidation around hardliners. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since mid-March, amid unverified reports of injuries like a fractured foot, reliance on AI videos, and speculation—including from US officials—about his health or survival, heightening uncertainty over regime stability. On April 30, a statement attributed to him reaffirmed defense of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, rejecting US peace overtures on the Strait of Hormuz, as ceasefire talks stall and internal power dynamics evolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volumen
$12,397,186Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes triggered a swift leadership transition, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader in early March amid wartime consolidation around hardliners. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since mid-March, amid unverified reports of injuries like a fractured foot, reliance on AI videos, and speculation—including from US officials—about his health or survival, heightening uncertainty over regime stability. On April 30, a statement attributed to him reaffirmed defense of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, rejecting US peace overtures on the Strait of Hormuz, as ceasefire talks stall and internal power dynamics evolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,397,186Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes triggered a swift leadership transition, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader in early March amid wartime consolidation around hardliners. Mojtaba has made no public appearances since mid-March, amid unverified reports of injuries like a fractured foot, reliance on AI videos, and speculation—including from US officials—about his health or survival, heightening uncertainty over regime stability. On April 30, a statement attributed to him reaffirmed defense of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, rejecting US peace overtures on the Strait of Hormuz, as ceasefire talks stall and internal power dynamics evolve.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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