Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven primarily by the Reserve Bank of India's April 8 projection of 4.6% average CPI for fiscal year 2026-27 (Q1: 4.0%, Q3 peak at 5.2%), amid Mideast tensions elevating oil import costs and supply shock risks. March 2026 retail inflation quickened to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in 12 months—from 3.21% in February, fueled by manufactured goods and moderate food pressures, reinforcing sticky price dynamics despite the RBI's 4% target (2-6% band). The RBI held the repo rate steady, signaling vigilance, with April CPI data due May 12 as the next key catalyst that could shift these closely contested odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 66%
3,75% a 4,49% 23%
<0,75% 9%
1,50% a 2,24% 5.8%
$59,724 Vol.
$59,724 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
9%
0,75% a 1,49%
6%
1,50% a 2,24%
6%
2.25% a 2.99%
5%
3,00% a 3,74%
10%
3,75% a 4,49%
23%
4,50%+
66%
4,50%+ 66%
3,75% a 4,49% 23%
<0,75% 9%
1,50% a 2,24% 5.8%
$59,724 Vol.
$59,724 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$742 Vol.
9%
0,75% a 1,49%
$494 Vol.
6%
1,50% a 2,24%
$405 Vol.
6%
2.25% a 2.99%
$23,566 Vol.
5%
3,00% a 3,74%
$492 Vol.
10%
3,75% a 4,49%
$22,846 Vol.
23%
4,50%+
$11,179 Vol.
66%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven primarily by the Reserve Bank of India's April 8 projection of 4.6% average CPI for fiscal year 2026-27 (Q1: 4.0%, Q3 peak at 5.2%), amid Mideast tensions elevating oil import costs and supply shock risks. March 2026 retail inflation quickened to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in 12 months—from 3.21% in February, fueled by manufactured goods and moderate food pressures, reinforcing sticky price dynamics despite the RBI's 4% target (2-6% band). The RBI held the repo rate steady, signaling vigilance, with April CPI data due May 12 as the next key catalyst that could shift these closely contested odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$59,724Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven primarily by the Reserve Bank of India's April 8 projection of 4.6% average CPI for fiscal year 2026-27 (Q1: 4.0%, Q3 peak at 5.2%), amid Mideast tensions elevating oil import costs and supply shock risks. March 2026 retail inflation quickened to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in 12 months—from 3.21% in February, fueled by manufactured goods and moderate food pressures, reinforcing sticky price dynamics despite the RBI's 4% target (2-6% band). The RBI held the repo rate steady, signaling vigilance, with April CPI data due May 12 as the next key catalyst that could shift these closely contested odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$59,724Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven primarily by the Reserve Bank of India's April 8 projection of 4.6% average CPI for fiscal year 2026-27 (Q1: 4.0%, Q3 peak at 5.2%), amid Mideast tensions elevating oil import costs and supply shock risks. March 2026 retail inflation quickened to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in 12 months—from 3.21% in February, fueled by manufactured goods and moderate food pressures, reinforcing sticky price dynamics despite the RBI's 4% target (2-6% band). The RBI held the repo rate steady, signaling vigilance, with April CPI data due May 12 as the next key catalyst that could shift these closely contested odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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