Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a rise to 3.93% year-over-year, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's upward revision of its FY2027 inflation forecast to 5.1%, have reinforced trader expectations that India's annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.5%. Elevated food inflation, driven by global energy and fertilizer price pressures from Middle East developments, combined with risks from potential monsoon shortfalls and a weaker rupee, underpin the 87% implied probability for the 4.50%+ outcome. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk, pricing in these persistent supply-side factors over lower historical base rates, with limited near-term catalysts likely to alter the trajectory before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 87%
3,75% a 4,49% 6.6%
<0,75% 3.1%
1,50% a 2,24% 2.6%
$61,401 Vol.
$61,401 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
3%
0,75% a 1,49%
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
3%
2.25% a 2.99%
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
<1%
3,75% a 4,49%
7%
4,50%+
87%
4,50%+ 87%
3,75% a 4,49% 6.6%
<0,75% 3.1%
1,50% a 2,24% 2.6%
$61,401 Vol.
$61,401 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$838 Vol.
3%
0,75% a 1,49%
$558 Vol.
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$447 Vol.
3%
2.25% a 2.99%
$24,063 Vol.
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
$637 Vol.
<1%
3,75% a 4,49%
$23,417 Vol.
7%
4,50%+
$11,441 Vol.
87%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a rise to 3.93% year-over-year, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's upward revision of its FY2027 inflation forecast to 5.1%, have reinforced trader expectations that India's annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.5%. Elevated food inflation, driven by global energy and fertilizer price pressures from Middle East developments, combined with risks from potential monsoon shortfalls and a weaker rupee, underpin the 87% implied probability for the 4.50%+ outcome. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk, pricing in these persistent supply-side factors over lower historical base rates, with limited near-term catalysts likely to alter the trajectory before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$61,401Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a rise to 3.93% year-over-year, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's upward revision of its FY2027 inflation forecast to 5.1%, have reinforced trader expectations that India's annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.5%. Elevated food inflation, driven by global energy and fertilizer price pressures from Middle East developments, combined with risks from potential monsoon shortfalls and a weaker rupee, underpin the 87% implied probability for the 4.50%+ outcome. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk, pricing in these persistent supply-side factors over lower historical base rates, with limited near-term catalysts likely to alter the trajectory before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$61,401Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a rise to 3.93% year-over-year, alongside the Reserve Bank of India's upward revision of its FY2027 inflation forecast to 5.1%, have reinforced trader expectations that India's annual inflation rate for 2026 will exceed 4.5%. Elevated food inflation, driven by global energy and fertilizer price pressures from Middle East developments, combined with risks from potential monsoon shortfalls and a weaker rupee, underpin the 87% implied probability for the 4.50%+ outcome. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk, pricing in these persistent supply-side factors over lower historical base rates, with limited near-term catalysts likely to alter the trajectory before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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