Recent short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies point to a maximum of 17–18°C in Warsaw on June 11, with heavy rain and north-westerly winds expected to limit daytime heating. These conditions explain why trader consensus clusters tightly around those two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 16°C or 19°C. Cloud cover and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, narrowing the range of plausible peaks, whereas clearer intervals or delayed showers could allow brief warming toward 19°C. Model runs continue to show modest spread in timing and intensity of rain, sustaining the narrow distribution of implied probabilities across the central outcomes. Updated guidance from regional services over the next 48 hours will likely refine these variables ahead of market resolution.