Trader consensus favors "No" at 74.5% implied probability for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's enduring control amid severe economic pressures from oil shortages, U.S. sanctions, and the loss of Venezuelan subsidies, which triggered a national power grid collapse in March. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has projected defiance in recent addresses and a mid-April NBC interview, ruling out resignation while overseeing limited concessions like releasing over 2,000 prisoners by early April. Growing anti-government protests persist without organized opposition, as many critics have fled, and April 21 diplomatic talks with U.S. officials—described as respectful—focused on easing the energy blockade rather than escalation. Historical regime resilience and absent mass uprising underpin traders' skepticism of near-term overthrow despite Trump administration rhetoric.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
Sí
$186,319 Vol.
$186,319 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$186,319 Vol.
$186,319 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 74.5% implied probability for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's enduring control amid severe economic pressures from oil shortages, U.S. sanctions, and the loss of Venezuelan subsidies, which triggered a national power grid collapse in March. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has projected defiance in recent addresses and a mid-April NBC interview, ruling out resignation while overseeing limited concessions like releasing over 2,000 prisoners by early April. Growing anti-government protests persist without organized opposition, as many critics have fled, and April 21 diplomatic talks with U.S. officials—described as respectful—focused on easing the energy blockade rather than escalation. Historical regime resilience and absent mass uprising underpin traders' skepticism of near-term overthrow despite Trump administration rhetoric.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volumen
$186,319Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 74.5% implied probability for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's enduring control amid severe economic pressures from oil shortages, U.S. sanctions, and the loss of Venezuelan subsidies, which triggered a national power grid collapse in March. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has projected defiance in recent addresses and a mid-April NBC interview, ruling out resignation while overseeing limited concessions like releasing over 2,000 prisoners by early April. Growing anti-government protests persist without organized opposition, as many critics have fled, and April 21 diplomatic talks with U.S. officials—described as respectful—focused on easing the energy blockade rather than escalation. Historical regime resilience and absent mass uprising underpin traders' skepticism of near-term overthrow despite Trump administration rhetoric.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$186,319Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 74.5% implied probability for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's enduring control amid severe economic pressures from oil shortages, U.S. sanctions, and the loss of Venezuelan subsidies, which triggered a national power grid collapse in March. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has projected defiance in recent addresses and a mid-April NBC interview, ruling out resignation while overseeing limited concessions like releasing over 2,000 prisoners by early April. Growing anti-government protests persist without organized opposition, as many critics have fled, and April 21 diplomatic talks with U.S. officials—described as respectful—focused on easing the energy blockade rather than escalation. Historical regime resilience and absent mass uprising underpin traders' skepticism of near-term overthrow despite Trump administration rhetoric.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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