Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation around 5.1%, with the 5.00-5.49% bin leading at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent upside pressures despite the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 29 Selic rate cut to 14.50%. This hawkish easing—amid accelerating mid-April IPCA-15 data showing 0.89% monthly and 4.37% yearly gains—signals broadening inflation from food, fuels, and services, exacerbated by Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. BCB's Focus surveys have lifted 2026 end-year forecasts for six straight weeks to 4.86%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling, yet traders assign higher odds to 5%+ outcomes amid deanchored expectations. Key catalysts ahead include full April IPCA (early May) and May Copom, where policy thresholds could pivot sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 44.3%
4,50-4,99% 23.6%
5,50-5,99% 9.9%
6,00-6,49% 6.2%
$56,504 Vol.
$56,504 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
2%
3,00-3,49%
3%
3,50-3,99%
1%
4,00-4,49 %
4%
4,50-4,99%
24%
5,00-5,49%
44%
5,50-5,99%
10%
6,00-6,49%
6%
6,50-6,99%
3%
7,00%+
3%
5,00-5,49% 44.3%
4,50-4,99% 23.6%
5,50-5,99% 9.9%
6,00-6,49% 6.2%
$56,504 Vol.
$56,504 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
$4,374 Vol.
2%
3,00-3,49%
$4,370 Vol.
3%
3,50-3,99%
$8,864 Vol.
1%
4,00-4,49 %
$7,668 Vol.
4%
4,50-4,99%
$6,840 Vol.
24%
5,00-5,49%
$5,860 Vol.
44%
5,50-5,99%
$5,594 Vol.
10%
6,00-6,49%
$4,653 Vol.
6%
6,50-6,99%
$4,853 Vol.
3%
7,00%+
$3,429 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation around 5.1%, with the 5.00-5.49% bin leading at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent upside pressures despite the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 29 Selic rate cut to 14.50%. This hawkish easing—amid accelerating mid-April IPCA-15 data showing 0.89% monthly and 4.37% yearly gains—signals broadening inflation from food, fuels, and services, exacerbated by Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. BCB's Focus surveys have lifted 2026 end-year forecasts for six straight weeks to 4.86%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling, yet traders assign higher odds to 5%+ outcomes amid deanchored expectations. Key catalysts ahead include full April IPCA (early May) and May Copom, where policy thresholds could pivot sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$56,504Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation around 5.1%, with the 5.00-5.49% bin leading at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent upside pressures despite the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 29 Selic rate cut to 14.50%. This hawkish easing—amid accelerating mid-April IPCA-15 data showing 0.89% monthly and 4.37% yearly gains—signals broadening inflation from food, fuels, and services, exacerbated by Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. BCB's Focus surveys have lifted 2026 end-year forecasts for six straight weeks to 4.86%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling, yet traders assign higher odds to 5%+ outcomes amid deanchored expectations. Key catalysts ahead include full April IPCA (early May) and May Copom, where policy thresholds could pivot sentiment.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$56,504Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation around 5.1%, with the 5.00-5.49% bin leading at 41.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent upside pressures despite the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April 29 Selic rate cut to 14.50%. This hawkish easing—amid accelerating mid-April IPCA-15 data showing 0.89% monthly and 4.37% yearly gains—signals broadening inflation from food, fuels, and services, exacerbated by Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. BCB's Focus surveys have lifted 2026 end-year forecasts for six straight weeks to 4.86%, breaching the 4.5% target ceiling, yet traders assign higher odds to 5%+ outcomes amid deanchored expectations. Key catalysts ahead include full April IPCA (early May) and May Copom, where policy thresholds could pivot sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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