Recent static-fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole active pad and destroyed the booster and upper stage, driving the 82% market-implied probability against any New Glenn launch in 2026. Blue Origin has acknowledged repairs will exceed a year while stating intent to resume flights by year-end, yet official schedules list all remaining 2026 missions as TBD. The vehicle achieved orbit on its January 2025 debut and completed a third flight with reused hardware in April 2026, but the latest anomaly resets the manifest and launch infrastructure. Historical turnaround times after comparable ground-test failures and the single-pad constraint support trader consensus that a 2026 return flight remains unlikely absent rapid, unforeseen recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static-fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole active pad and destroyed the booster and upper stage, driving the 82% market-implied probability against any New Glenn launch in 2026. Blue Origin has acknowledged repairs will exceed a year while stating intent to resume flights by year-end, yet official schedules list all remaining 2026 missions as TBD. The vehicle achieved orbit on its January 2025 debut and completed a third flight with reused hardware in April 2026, but the latest anomaly resets the manifest and launch infrastructure. Historical turnaround times after comparable ground-test failures and the single-pad constraint support trader consensus that a 2026 return flight remains unlikely absent rapid, unforeseen recovery.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$210Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static-fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole active pad and destroyed the booster and upper stage, driving the 82% market-implied probability against any New Glenn launch in 2026. Blue Origin has acknowledged repairs will exceed a year while stating intent to resume flights by year-end, yet official schedules list all remaining 2026 missions as TBD. The vehicle achieved orbit on its January 2025 debut and completed a third flight with reused hardware in April 2026, but the latest anomaly resets the manifest and launch infrastructure. Historical turnaround times after comparable ground-test failures and the single-pad constraint support trader consensus that a 2026 return flight remains unlikely absent rapid, unforeseen recovery.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volumen
$210Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent static-fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 heavily damaged the sole active pad and destroyed the booster and upper stage, driving the 82% market-implied probability against any New Glenn launch in 2026. Blue Origin has acknowledged repairs will exceed a year while stating intent to resume flights by year-end, yet official schedules list all remaining 2026 missions as TBD. The vehicle achieved orbit on its January 2025 debut and completed a third flight with reused hardware in April 2026, but the latest anomaly resets the manifest and launch infrastructure. Historical turnaround times after comparable ground-test failures and the single-pad constraint support trader consensus that a 2026 return flight remains unlikely absent rapid, unforeseen recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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