Geopolitical tensions tied to Yemen’s Houthis and the broader Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risk. Renewed Houthi threats since February 2026, including missile strikes on Israel and declarations banning Israeli-linked vessels, have kept shipping companies on alert, sustaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Transit volumes through the strait and Suez Canal have already fallen sharply from pre-2023 levels, with 7-day averages near 33 calls as of March 2026. Oil-market participants monitor the roughly 12 percent of seaborne crude that transits the chokepoint, noting that simultaneous disruption with the Strait of Hormuz could pressure benchmarks toward $140 per barrel. Key near-term catalysts include Houthi statements, U.S. or EU naval responses, and any de-escalation signals ahead of June resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
$4,674,463 Vol.
30 abr 2026
June 15
1%
June 22
2%
30 de junio
3%
30 de septiembre
18%
$4,674,463 Vol.
June 15
$136,819 Vol.
1%
June 22
$82,768 Vol.
2%
30 de junio
$869,938 Vol.
3%
30 de septiembre
$263,774 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions tied to Yemen’s Houthis and the broader Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risk. Renewed Houthi threats since February 2026, including missile strikes on Israel and declarations banning Israeli-linked vessels, have kept shipping companies on alert, sustaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Transit volumes through the strait and Suez Canal have already fallen sharply from pre-2023 levels, with 7-day averages near 33 calls as of March 2026. Oil-market participants monitor the roughly 12 percent of seaborne crude that transits the chokepoint, noting that simultaneous disruption with the Strait of Hormuz could pressure benchmarks toward $140 per barrel. Key near-term catalysts include Houthi statements, U.S. or EU naval responses, and any de-escalation signals ahead of June resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volumen
$4,674,463Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions tied to Yemen’s Houthis and the broader Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risk. Renewed Houthi threats since February 2026, including missile strikes on Israel and declarations banning Israeli-linked vessels, have kept shipping companies on alert, sustaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Transit volumes through the strait and Suez Canal have already fallen sharply from pre-2023 levels, with 7-day averages near 33 calls as of March 2026. Oil-market participants monitor the roughly 12 percent of seaborne crude that transits the chokepoint, noting that simultaneous disruption with the Strait of Hormuz could pressure benchmarks toward $140 per barrel. Key near-term catalysts include Houthi statements, U.S. or EU naval responses, and any de-escalation signals ahead of June resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$4,674,463Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions tied to Yemen’s Houthis and the broader Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risk. Renewed Houthi threats since February 2026, including missile strikes on Israel and declarations banning Israeli-linked vessels, have kept shipping companies on alert, sustaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Transit volumes through the strait and Suez Canal have already fallen sharply from pre-2023 levels, with 7-day averages near 33 calls as of March 2026. Oil-market participants monitor the roughly 12 percent of seaborne crude that transits the chokepoint, noting that simultaneous disruption with the Strait of Hormuz could pressure benchmarks toward $140 per barrel. Key near-term catalysts include Houthi statements, U.S. or EU naval responses, and any de-escalation signals ahead of June resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes