Polymarket traders' consensus prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight race, with 3.6% at 39.9% implied probability edging out 3.7%+ at 36.3%, while ≤2.9% commands 31.5% amid downside risks. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—from January's 3.3%—citing oil price shocks from a limited Iran conflict, has boosted lower-tail odds, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and emerging market vulnerabilities. Counterbalancing this, robust U.S. growth projections near 2.3%, fueled by AI investments and easing monetary policy, sustain optimism for moderate expansion. Key swing factors include Q1 2026 GDP nowcasts and Mideast de-escalation; OECD and World Bank forecasts near 2.9% underscore the contested path ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
2026 Crecimiento del PIB mundial
≤2,9% 15%
3,4% 7.2%
3,5 % 5.3%
3,0% 3.4%
$15,783 Vol.
$15,783 Vol.
15 ene 2027
≤2,9%
32%
3,0%
3%
3,1%
3%
3,2%
3%
3,3%
1%
3,4%
7%
3,5 %
5%
3,6%
41%
3,7% o más
36%
≤2,9% 15%
3,4% 7.2%
3,5 % 5.3%
3,0% 3.4%
$15,783 Vol.
$15,783 Vol.
15 ene 2027
≤2,9%
$3,754 Vol.
32%
3,0%
$405 Vol.
3%
3,1%
$368 Vol.
3%
3,2%
$1,583 Vol.
3%
3,3%
$1,922 Vol.
1%
3,4%
$3,527 Vol.
7%
3,5 %
$2,991 Vol.
5%
3,6%
$452 Vol.
41%
3,7% o más
$782 Vol.
36%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' consensus prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight race, with 3.6% at 39.9% implied probability edging out 3.7%+ at 36.3%, while ≤2.9% commands 31.5% amid downside risks. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—from January's 3.3%—citing oil price shocks from a limited Iran conflict, has boosted lower-tail odds, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and emerging market vulnerabilities. Counterbalancing this, robust U.S. growth projections near 2.3%, fueled by AI investments and easing monetary policy, sustain optimism for moderate expansion. Key swing factors include Q1 2026 GDP nowcasts and Mideast de-escalation; OECD and World Bank forecasts near 2.9% underscore the contested path ahead.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volumen
$15,783Fecha de finalización
15 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' consensus prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight race, with 3.6% at 39.9% implied probability edging out 3.7%+ at 36.3%, while ≤2.9% commands 31.5% amid downside risks. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—from January's 3.3%—citing oil price shocks from a limited Iran conflict, has boosted lower-tail odds, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and emerging market vulnerabilities. Counterbalancing this, robust U.S. growth projections near 2.3%, fueled by AI investments and easing monetary policy, sustain optimism for moderate expansion. Key swing factors include Q1 2026 GDP nowcasts and Mideast de-escalation; OECD and World Bank forecasts near 2.9% underscore the contested path ahead.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$15,783Fecha de finalización
15 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus prices 2026 world GDP growth in a tight race, with 3.6% at 39.9% implied probability edging out 3.7%+ at 36.3%, while ≤2.9% commands 31.5% amid downside risks. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgrade to 3.1%—from January's 3.3%—citing oil price shocks from a limited Iran conflict, has boosted lower-tail odds, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and emerging market vulnerabilities. Counterbalancing this, robust U.S. growth projections near 2.3%, fueled by AI investments and easing monetary policy, sustain optimism for moderate expansion. Key swing factors include Q1 2026 GDP nowcasts and Mideast de-escalation; OECD and World Bank forecasts near 2.9% underscore the contested path ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes