France's recent climb to FIFA world #1 after dominant March qualifiers, including a 4-0 rout of Ukraine, has edged trader consensus slightly ahead at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by a navigable Group I featuring Senegal, Norway, and Iraq. Spain holds close at 15.3% on Euro 2024 championship form and favorable Group H draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, while England's 11.1% reflects deep squad depth despite Croatia in Group L. Defending champions Argentina (8.6%) and Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong contention via CONMEBOL pedigree, tempered by late qualifier slips, with Portugal (7.3%)'s star power keeping the top bunch tight in the 48-team expanded format's unpredictable group stage dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFrancia 16.3%
España 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$869,458,623 Vol.
$869,458,623 Vol.
20 jul 2026
Francia
16%
España
15%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Turquía
1%
Austria
1%
Suecia
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Irán
<1%
Francia 16.3%
España 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$869,458,623 Vol.
$869,458,623 Vol.
20 jul 2026
Francia
$22,649,012 Vol.
16%
España
$17,835,366 Vol.
15%
Inglaterra
$14,626,064 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$15,478,108 Vol.
9%
Brasil
$16,172,624 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$16,754,536 Vol.
7%
Alemania
$14,278,499 Vol.
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
$16,182,013 Vol.
3%
Noruega
$14,489,605 Vol.
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
$17,981,787 Vol.
2%
Bélgica
$14,780,983 Vol.
2%
Marruecos
$17,206,403 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$13,578,057 Vol.
2%
USA
$29,838,808 Vol.
2%
Uruguay
$14,947,332 Vol.
1%
México
$16,249,300 Vol.
1%
Croacia
$15,748,201 Vol.
1%
Suiza
$14,162,177 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$18,035,813 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$15,225,038 Vol.
1%
Canadá
$20,422,493 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$7,990,116 Vol.
1%
Austria
$15,869,279 Vol.
1%
Suecia
$6,934,231 Vol.
1%
Corea del Sur
$20,684,322 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$17,407,385 Vol.
<1%
Costa de Marfil
$19,074,479 Vol.
<1%
Egipto
$21,108,627 Vol.
<1%
Argelia
$19,474,831 Vol.
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
$8,855,245 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
$16,707,797 Vol.
<1%
Túnez
$19,707,224 Vol.
<1%
Chequia
$7,367,420 Vol.
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
$26,804,375 Vol.
<1%
Jordania
$23,610,113 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
$33,508,110 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$16,040,277 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistán
$36,507,560 Vol.
<1%
Panamá
$10,693,727 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$10,727,591 Vol.
<1%
Sudáfrica
$24,756,568 Vol.
<1%
RD del Congo
$14,169,099 Vol.
<1%
Cabo Verde
$20,423,609 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$21,979,777 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$20,368,319 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$24,856,683 Vol.
<1%
Haití
$16,237,334 Vol.
<1%
Irán
$22,023,559 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's recent climb to FIFA world #1 after dominant March qualifiers, including a 4-0 rout of Ukraine, has edged trader consensus slightly ahead at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by a navigable Group I featuring Senegal, Norway, and Iraq. Spain holds close at 15.3% on Euro 2024 championship form and favorable Group H draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, while England's 11.1% reflects deep squad depth despite Croatia in Group L. Defending champions Argentina (8.6%) and Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong contention via CONMEBOL pedigree, tempered by late qualifier slips, with Portugal (7.3%)'s star power keeping the top bunch tight in the 48-team expanded format's unpredictable group stage dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volumen
$869,458,623Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's recent climb to FIFA world #1 after dominant March qualifiers, including a 4-0 rout of Ukraine, has edged trader consensus slightly ahead at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by a navigable Group I featuring Senegal, Norway, and Iraq. Spain holds close at 15.3% on Euro 2024 championship form and favorable Group H draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, while England's 11.1% reflects deep squad depth despite Croatia in Group L. Defending champions Argentina (8.6%) and Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong contention via CONMEBOL pedigree, tempered by late qualifier slips, with Portugal (7.3%)'s star power keeping the top bunch tight in the 48-team expanded format's unpredictable group stage dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$869,458,623Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...France's recent climb to FIFA world #1 after dominant March qualifiers, including a 4-0 rout of Ukraine, has edged trader consensus slightly ahead at 16.4% implied probability, bolstered by a navigable Group I featuring Senegal, Norway, and Iraq. Spain holds close at 15.3% on Euro 2024 championship form and favorable Group H draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, while England's 11.1% reflects deep squad depth despite Croatia in Group L. Defending champions Argentina (8.6%) and Brazil (8.6%) maintain strong contention via CONMEBOL pedigree, tempered by late qualifier slips, with Portugal (7.3%)'s star power keeping the top bunch tight in the 48-team expanded format's unpredictable group stage dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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