France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a gritty 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite playing a man down after halftime—where Kylian Mbappé and Hugo Ekitiké scored, propelling Les Bleus to the top of the latest FIFA rankings ahead of Spain. Spain sits close at 15.3% amid concerns over Lamine Yamal's injury status, yet their youthful La Masia pipeline and recent major tournament success keep them prominent. The race remains tight among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6% each)—due to challenging group draws like France-Senegal, Spain-Uruguay, and England-Croatia, expanded 48-team field introducing upsets potential, and peak-age stars like Mbappé (27) facing no clear path dominance just six weeks from kickoff on June 11.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFrancia 16.4%
España 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$869,415,023 Vol.
$869,415,023 Vol.
Francia
16%
España
15%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Turquía
1%
Austria
1%
Suecia
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Irán
<1%
Francia 16.4%
España 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$869,415,023 Vol.
$869,415,023 Vol.
Francia
16%
España
15%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Turquía
1%
Austria
1%
Suecia
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Irán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a gritty 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite playing a man down after halftime—where Kylian Mbappé and Hugo Ekitiké scored, propelling Les Bleus to the top of the latest FIFA rankings ahead of Spain. Spain sits close at 15.3% amid concerns over Lamine Yamal's injury status, yet their youthful La Masia pipeline and recent major tournament success keep them prominent. The race remains tight among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6% each)—due to challenging group draws like France-Senegal, Spain-Uruguay, and England-Croatia, expanded 48-team field introducing upsets potential, and peak-age stars like Mbappé (27) facing no clear path dominance just six weeks from kickoff on June 11.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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